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Four Bitcoin halvings. Four peaks, every single one landing in the same 12-to-18-month window after the supply cut, like clockwork nobody actually controls. What's quietly fallen apart is the other half of the story: the size of the move has shrunk every cycle, from roughly 96x in 2013 down to under 2x this time around. Most takes on the halving theory treat it as one claim, bullish or dead. It's actually two, and only one of them is still holding up. This week's Probably Nothing digs into why, with the full indexed chart against every prior cycle. Also in this issue: a cooler-than-expected